V.V. Kotin - Dr.Sc. (Phys.-Math.), Associate Professor, Bauman Moscow State Technical University E-mail: v.kotin@gmail.com A.S. Sychugina - Bachelor, Bauman Moscow State Technical University E-mail: sychuginaanna@yandex.ru

As the title implies the article describes the results of working out an effective strategy for one of the specific epidemiological models. It is specially noted that different methods have been used to achieve optimal results for controlling the spread of measles infection. The article demonstrates an optimal measles infection control strategy for the SEIR epidemiological model. Bellman's discrete principle of optimality was used to find the optimal control. Much attention is given to theoretical considerations concerning epidemiological models. It should be emphasized that the proposed methods are considered to give reliable information suitable for further analysis. A state of uncontrolled and controlled mathematical models is shown and the results are examined and compared. The article gives valuable information on optimizing the SEIR epidemiological model basing on the data comparison. The data of a numerical simulation which illustrate theoretical results for the SEIR model are analyzed for a constant population size. Finally, the article gives a detailed analysis of numerical simulations of the resulting optimality system which show that it is more beneficial to vaccinate the population than to apply supportive treatment at the initial stage of the disease spreading. However, certain resources should be invested in vaccination until the disease prevalence starts coming to an end because after this point vaccination becomes more expensive than treatment application. So, basing on the above-mentioned results of the research the author comes to the conclusion that vaccination and treatment should be used in proper periods. Thus, the article is sure to provide an optimal measles infection control strategy for the SEIR epidemiological model.

 

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