V.V. Belousov1, O.V. Druzhinina2

1,2 FRС «Computer Science and Control» of RAS (Moscow, Russia)
1vbelousov@frccsc.ru; 2odruzhinina@frccsc.ru

The development of methods for modeling and analyzing organizational and technical systems is one of the most relevant areas of research. Effective methods include methods for analyzing the impact of stochastic disturbances on organizational and technical systems taking into account all stages of the life cycle of both elements and nodes as well as systems as a whole. An important issue is the synthesis of nonstationary models of organizational and technical systems based on the method of normal approximation and the development of instrumental and methodological support for the analysis of such systems using the theory of differential equations, the theory of stochastic systems and symbolic calculations. The objectives of the work include: the construction and analysis of nonstationary models of resource dynamics of organizational and technical systems defined by ordinary differential equations; transition to stochastic nonstationary models taking into account the influence of nonparametric white noise; obtaining nonstationary systems of differential equations with respect to probabilistic moments of the first and second orders; analyzing the influence of nonstationarity and random noise on the dynamics of organizational and technical system resources. Nonstationary deterministic dynamic models of organizational and technical systems describing the processes of operation, repair and restoration are considered. The transition to stochastic models with nonparametric white random noise is performed. Using an algorithm of symbolic calculations which is implemented for dynamical systems with polynomial functions nonstationary deterministic systems of differential equations with respect to probabilistic moments of the first and second orders are obtained. Computer modeling has been performed and a comparative analysis of trajectory dynamics is performed taking into account time-dependent parameters. The possibilities of using the normal approximation method for random noise of the Poisson type are considered. The results can be used in solving problems of modeling systems with random disturbances and filtering problems, as well as in the development of decision support systems and in improving technological processes related to the management of complex organizational and technical systems.

Belousov V.V., Druzhinina O.V. Study of nonstationary stochastic models of organizational and technical systems resource dynamics using the algorithm of normal approximation // Science Intensive Technologies. 2026. V. 27. № 4. P. 22−30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18127/j19998465-202604-03

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