A.B. Lachikhina1, S.N. Goncharenko2

1 KF BMSTU (Kaluga, Russia)
2 NUST MISIS (Moscow, Russia)
1 lachikhinaab@bmstu.ru, 2 gsn@misis.ru

Problem statement. Incidents of production operations continuity can occur in all processes of the enterprise and in all areas of activity, leading to significant disruptions of business processes. To reduce the impact of such incidents on the successful operation of the enterprise, it is necessary to analyze them and consider the possibility of modeling the production system conditions, taking into account the impact of incidents.

Goal. To analyze the incidents of non-fulfillment of production operations, taking into account their probabilistic nature, and the subsequent modeling of the transition states of industrial systems.

Materials. Statistical data on the technological line operation of an instrument-making production enterprise for six months were used as source materials to solve the problem.

Methods of solution. Methods of probability theory, theory of random processes, system modeling, and system analysis.

Accepted assumptions. The production system functioning is described on the basis of a simple homogeneous Markov chain.

Results. The production operations performance is considered taking into account the possibility of their disruption due to the occurrence of work interruptions. An approach to modeling based on the financial and transition probabilities of the states of the production system during operations is proposed. A graph model of the process of performing production operations with n attempts is presented, which allows taking into account not only the possibility of an incident of continuity of operations, but also the state of the industrial system before the start of restoration work and their volume. Expressions are obtained for determining the probabilities of correct execution of a production operation, non-completion of a production operation, an undetected incident of non-completion of a production operation, and a detected incident of non-completion of a production operation based on the final probabilities of indust­rial system transitions. Based on experimental data and formulas obtained, it is concluded that the number of incidents in production systems varies depending on the degree of automation. Practical significance. The developed approach allows using mathematical apparatus to investigate the degree of exposure of production systems to various incidents that can disrupt the continuity of technological processes.

Lachikhina A.B., Goncharenko S.N. The industrial systems transient states modeling based on incidents probabilistic analysis of failure to perform production operations // Highly Available Systems. 2026. V. 22. № 3. P. 85−98. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18127/j20729472-202603-08

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