A.V. Yakutin

A measure of surface-to-air missile (SAM) efficiency under interception of a single target is the probability of the event «target defeat». The Monte-Carlo method based on modelling of a large number target defeat scenarios is used for probability calculation. The SAM efficiency estimation model allows us to define probabilities of various events of meeting aircraft with field of hit elements (HE). The law of defeat of attackable compartments of the target and the formulas for calculations of used parameters are given in this article. The block diagram of the model for estimation of efficiency of SAM fighting equipment is presented in the article. The model has block structure because it is possible to change its blocks keeping the general structure of the model. Parameters of meeting of the rocket with target at the moment of blasting of fragmentation fighting part (FFP) of SAM are set using the average values and root-mean-square error, used for various scenarios of the meeting. The mathematical model which is used for estimation of probability of defeat of the target describes moving of bodies and areas in three-dimensional space. Matrices of transformation of coordinates are used for conversion of one coordinate frame to another. Hit of HE in the target is defined by means of finding an intersection point of a movement line of HE with a surface describing the body of the target or its vulnerable compartments. Probability of defeat of the target is defined using probabilities of defeat of compartments of the target for the given realization of meeting conditions. Preparation and delivery of results are fulfilled after enough statistics about events of defeat of target. The confidential interval is defined for estimation of probabilities of the target defeat. This model has been realized with a programming language C++ in the programming environment Embarcadero C++ Builder 2010. Graphic display of results of the target interception is fulfilled in the program by means of the standard library OpenGL. This model can be used to estimate efficiency of the fighting equipment of SAM and to find its rational parametres.