A.B. Sorokin1, L.M. Zheleznyak2

1,2 MIREA – Russian Technological University (Moscow, Russia)
1 ab__sorokin@mail.ru, 2 lilya.zheleznyak@mail.ru

Modern management activities in uncertain environments require adaptive support tools. There is a contradiction between the need for systems that take into account the cognitive patterns of expert managers and the lack of holistic methodologies that enable the transformation of problematic situation analysis into formal, verified, and executable knowledge models. The goal of this work is to bridge this gap. Thus, there is no universal approach that links the situational analysis of a specific problem with the conceptual structure of a single management decision and the subsequent design of a cognitive model. An original method is proposed, based on three key principles: situational analysis as a starting point for structuring a problem area; the extraction of a conceptual plan from the universal structure of a single management decision, which acts as a cognitive template; and a three-stage process (formalization, verification, and decision and interpretation) for transforming tacit knowledge into explicit models. The methodology is operationalized as a proprietary software suite, the architecture of which includes: «Designer» – a module for visual conceptual modeling and storage of conceptual knowledge structures; «Solver» – a module for automatically checking models for completeness and adequacy, generating knowledge bases in the form of production rules for expert systems; and «Interpreter» – an analytical reporting module that generates knowledge bases on cognitive representations. The theoretical result is presented as an end-to-end methodology for designing cognitive models, ensuring traceability from situational analysis to the finished production system. The technological result is determined by a working prototype of a software package that acts as an «intellectual superstructure» for constructing expert system models and cognitive analysis. The article demonstrates practical results: automatic generation of consistent databases of production rules and plans; increased adequacy and interpretability of the resulting models. The work contributes to cognitive modeling and knowledge engineering by proposing a formal link between situational analysis, conceptual frameworks, and software-executable models. The software package provides a ready-made tool for retaining expert experience, training personnel, diagnosing business processes, and quickly developing expert systems and cognitive models to support decision-making. The methodology reduces dependence on the unique competencies of individual experts, shifting the creation of knowledge-based systems to a standardized engineering process. This article represents a comprehensive study combining theoretical development, software implementation, and practical testing of a new approach to cognitive modeling in management.

Sorokin A.B., Zheleznyak L.M. Designing cognitive models based on situational analysis. Science Intensive Technologies. 2026. V. 27. № 3. P. 25−34. DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.18127/j19998465-202603-04 (in Russian)

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