Yu.V. Klinaev1, S.A. Korchagin2

1 Yuri Gagarin State Technical University of Saratov (Saratov, Russia),
2 Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Moscow, Russia)
1 klinaev51@mail.ru, 2sakorchagin@fa.ru

Problem statement. In recent decades, the world has repeatedly faced acute respiratory viral infection (ARVI)-like epidemics that significantly affect healthcare, economics, and social dynamics. Effective diagnostics, prevention, and management of the spread of viral infections require a deep understanding of the epidemic dynamics. In this context, mathematical modeling is an important tool that allows predicting possible epidemic scenarios and assessing the consequences. One of the main problems in this area is the need to develop accurate and interpretable models that are based on real data and can be adapted to rapidly changing conditions. At the same time, traditional models are often too complex to implement in practice, which complicates their use in real conditions.

Objective. Development of a methodology for mathematical modeling of the dynamics of the spread of acute respiratory viral infection (ARVI)-like epidemics based on the Malthus-Verhulst logistic equation using the VBA programming language.

Results. A methodology for mathematical modeling of acute respiratory viral infection (ARVI)-like epidemics based on the concept of the Verhulst logistic equation is proposed. Modeling macros are implemented in the Visual Basic for Applications MS Office programming environment. Testing of the software methodology is carried out based on the analysis of statistical information on the dynamics of "ARVI" diseases, regularly published in the regional official Internet media. Practical significance. The developed mathematical models and software modules for modeling are used in the educational process in the disciplines of "mathematical and computer modeling", "mathematical modeling of physical systems", "computer science", and can also be recommended to employees of the medical industry to familiarize themselves with the capabilities of IT technologies in their practical work.

Klinaev Yu.V., Korchagin S.A. Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of “ARVI”-like epi-demics: a practical aspect of VBA-implementation of the model based on the Malthus-Verhulst logistic equation. Nonlinear World. 2025. V. 23. № 3. P. 25–36. DOI: https:// doi.org/10.18127/ j20700970-202503-04 (In Russian)

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