V.B. Gisin1

1 Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Moscow, Russia)
1 vgisin@fa.ru

The causes and dynamics of the development of financial crises are one of the main directions of economic science. Mathematical models serve as an essential tool for studying crisis phenomena. Minsky Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) makes it possible to reveal the internal nature of crises. Increased interest in Minsky models arose after the 2008 crisis. Minsky models provide a framework for relating debt structures and economic factors showing how a period of stability is replaced by less favorable regimes, showing the roots of the financial crisis. The dynamic of Minsky models describe the transformation of the economic system in terms of successive regime changes leading from the stage of economic growth to the crisis caused by the increase in financial instability. Small-dimensional models play an important role, being the skeleton of more advanced models. Several models of dimension two are presented in this paper. The models combine economic indicators with financial ones and allow us to identify the nature of crisis phenomena. The model with a non-linear regulator of capital accumulation links economic growth with an increase in the debt burden, which eventually leads to a crisis. Within the framework of the Lotka-Volterra model, the concept of financial fragility of the system is introduced and the increase in financial fragility within the business cycle is shown. Using this model, it is shown that taking into account the factors of sustainable development can slow down (and stop) the development of crisis phenomena. A two-dimensional linear model has been developed where the phenomena described by FIH take place. It is shown that the government intervention in the economy can prevent the development of crisis. The developed models use the most general financial indicators, which makes them quite versatile. Their use makes it possible to identify the factors contributing to the emergence of crisis phenomena in the economy and take measures to stop them.

Gisin V.B. Minsky regimes in two-dimensional dynamic models. Nonlinear World. 2024. V. 22. № 4. P. 7–19. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18127/ j20700970-202404-02 (In Russian)

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