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Journal Nonlinear World №3 for 2012 г.
Article in number:
Predictability of sociodynamics (as applied to a mathematical model of a peasant community)
Keywords: sociodynaics mathematical modelling predictability of the chaotic regimes
Authors:
A.B. Medvinsky, S.A. Nefedov, A.V. Rusakov
Abstract:
Conceptual mathematical models are used extensively in studies of nonlinear dynamics of various natural and social systems. Conceptual modeling implies that only basic interactions between separate components of the systems under study are taken into account. Conceptual modeling allows describing the dynamical features of the phenomena being studied in the space of key parameters. Such a description is useful for revealing the main features of social communities - dynamics. In the given paper, we present a conceptual mathematical model of the peasant community dynamics. We show that variations in the population growth rate, which depends on consumption of the product produced by the community and also on the number of cultivated lands, can essentially change the character of the community dynamics and in particular can lead to emergence of dynamical chaos. We demonstrate that the horizon of predictability of the chaotic regimes depends on both intrinsic instability of the chaotic dynamics and the characteristic size of the chaotic attractor
Pages: 189-197
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