V. V. Borisov, E. S. Ustinenkov

The fuzzy cognitive model intended for the analysis of interactions in complex systems is offered. This model takes into account an opportunity of a choice of strategy of agents due to realization of the fuzzy game approach. The following components and procedures for development of the given model are considered: the description of conditions or values of concepts; method of interference of concepts against each other; method of accumulation of direct influence of several concepts on one concept in view of a choice of strategy of the concept (agent); method of indirect influence of concepts; system characteristics of fuzzy cognitive model; model of dynamics. The method of the analysis of interactions in complex systems is developed on the basis of the offered fuzzy cognitive model. This method consist of the following basic stages: construction of model of interaction of agents; modelling of dynamics; calculation of system characteristics of model; the analysis of a coordination of actions of agents on the basis of the designed system characteristics (including the analysis of the contribution of agents in activity of system); detection of types of interaction and roles of agents (including detection of coalitions); formation of coalitions; monitoring of interactions of agents. The fuzzy coalition cognitive model being development of the offered fuzzy cognitive map is developed. This model allows to carry out the monitoring of interactions of agents, including: the analysis of change of structure of coalitions with definition of the reasons of such change; prediction and indication of conflict situations as inside, and between coalitions; decision-making on reduction of risks of undesirable situations and their negative consequences (including, an estimation of realization of these decisions).