I. V. Shalashov

Now time many technical systems have high constructional and functional complexity. Interruptions in operation due to faults which are caused by strong influence of external and internal random factors lead to significant expenses. On practice for those systems reliability can be increased and expenses associated with exploitation can reduced via implementation of proactive fault management. The same time proactive fault management should include decision making procedures about corrective actions for reliability increasing. The article is devoted to the formulation of approach to predictive maintenance with fault prediction for systems with probabilistic description. Rational organization of predictive maintenance requires analysis of level of uncertainty prior to making decision about object state. Thereby decision making procedure about coming fault consist of two steps: on first step it is necessary to decide whether it is necessary to perform additional tests in order to make a decision about system state; on second step make a decision about system state. The article describes developed decision making procedures about technical diagnostic with consideration of information value and price of test execution. Provided example demonstrates efficiency of proposed enchantments to proactive fault management. Developed decision making procedures allows rational organization of predictive maintenance.