A.I. Kostogryzov1

1 FRC «Computer Science and Control» of RAS (Moscow, Russia)
1 akostogr@gmail.com

The protection of traditional Russian spiritual and moral values belongs to the strategic national priorities of the Russian Federation. According to the "National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation", the main goal in the implementation of national strategic priorities for the protection of traditional Russian spiritual and moral values, culture and historical memory is to strengthen the unity of peoples on the basis of all–Russian civic identity, preservation of primordial universal principles and socially significant guidelines for social development. The "Strategy ..." identifies current threats and tasks to be solved in Russia. In order to solve the tasks effectively in conditions of uncertainties and heterogeneous threats, special models and methods are required that allow not only to assess risks, but also to justify proactive measures to counter threats for the protection system of spiritual and moral values. However, today there are no such models and methods. A critical methodological contradiction has arisen between the objective needs for an effective solution of the tasks of the "Strategy ..." and the real possibilities in assessing the risks to the protection system of spiritual and moral values. This work is devoted to solving the problem of creating probabilistic models and methods (by adapting existing ones) that allow not only to predict the risks of destruction of the protection system of spiritual and moral values in conditions of uncertainties and heterogeneous threats, but also to justify proactive measures to counter threats.

The main purpose of the work (in two parts) is to create a scientifically based methodological approach to the analytical predicting the risks of destruction of the protection system of spiritual and moral values in conditions of uncertainties and heterogeneous threats. The purpose of the 1st part of the work is to develop a general approach to system modeling.

In the first part of the work, mathematical models and methods for predicting compound and integral risks of destruction of the protection system of spiritual and moral values in conditions of uncertainties and heterogeneous threats with the possibility of traceable analytical dependence on influencing factors are proposed. An example of a rough modeling the protection system of spiritual and moral values is given, when the essence of each element manifests itself without taking into account any additional interrelated support from the state, communities, and family. In the 2nd part, five additional examples of predicting risks are presented, illustrating the probabilistic modeling of the main essences of the protection system of spiritual and moral values as a system of systems with varying degrees of detail of eight constituent elements: element 1 – life, dignity, human rights and freedoms; 2 – patriotism, citizenship; 3 – service to the Fatherland and responsibility for its fate; 4 – high moral ideals, a strong family; 5 – creative work (including science and creativity); 6 – the priority of the spiritual over the material, humanism (including art and literature); 7 – mercy, justice, collectivism, mutual assistance and mutual respect; 8 – historical memory and continuity of generations, unity of the peoples of the country. The proposed approach to modeling the protection system of spiritual and moral values provides opportunities not only for analytical predicting of compound and integral risks in conditions of uncertainties and heterogeneous threats, but also for rationale proactive measures to counter threats.

Kostogryzov A.I. Probabilistic modeling the protection system of spiritual and moral values. Part 1. The general approach. Highly Available Systems. 2024. V. 20. № 2. P. 40−55. DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.18127/j20729472-202402-03 (in Russian)

1. Kostogryzov A.I., Nistratov G.A. Standartizaciya, matematicheskoe modelirovanie, racional'noe upravlenie i sertifikaciya v oblasti sistemnoj i programmnoj inzhenerii. Izd. 2-e. M.: Vooruzhenie, politika, konversiya. 2004, 2005. 395 s. (in Russian).
2. Kostogryzov A.I., Stepanov P.V. Innovacionnoe upravlenie kachestvom i riskami v zhiznennom cikle sistem M.: VPK. 2008. 404 s. (in Russian).
3. Kolowrocki K., Soszynska-Budny J. Reliability and Safety of Complex Technical Systems and Processes, Springer-Verlag London Limited. 2011.
4. Eid M., Rosato V. Critical Infrastructure Disruption Scenarios Analyses via Simulation. Managing the Complexity of Critical Infrastructures. A Modelling and Simulation Approach. SpringerOpen. 2016. P. 43–62.
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6. Abrosimov N.V., Kostogryzov A.I., Mahutov N.A. i dr.. Bezopasnost' Rossii. Pravovye, social'no-ekonomicheskie i nauchno-tekhnicheskie aspekty. Tekhnogennaya, tekhnologicheskaya i tekhnosfernaya bezopasnost'. Pod red. N.A. Mahutova. M.: MGOF «Znanie». 2018. 1016 s. (in Russian).
7. Kostogryzov A., Nistratov A., Nistratov G. Some Applicable Methods to Analyze and Optimize System Processes in Quality Management. InTech. 2012. P. 127−196. URL = http://www.intechopen.com/books/total-quality-management-and-six-sigma/some-applicable-methods-to-analyze-and-optimize-system-processes-in-quality-management.
8. Kostogryzov A.I., Stepanov P.V., Nistratov A.A., Grigor'ev L.I., Chervyakov L.M. Prognozirovanie riskov dlya obespecheniya kachestva informacii v clozhnyh sistemah. Sistemy vysokoj dostupnosti. 2016. T. 2. № 3. S. 25–37 (in Russian).
9. Kershenbaum V., Grigoriev L., Kanygin P. and Andrey Nistratov. Probabilistic modeling in system engineering. Probabilistic modeling processes for oil and gas systems. IntechOpen, 2018, pp. 55-79. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.74963
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12. Kolowrocki K. Safety analysis of multistate ageing car wheel system with dependent components. Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes. Gdynia Maritime University. 2020. P. 101–116.
13. Kostogryzov A., Nistratov A., Probabilistic methods of risk predictions and their pragmatic applications in life cycle of complex systems. Safety and Reliability of Systems and Processes. Gdynia Maritime University, 2020. P. 153–174.
14. Nistratov A.A. Analiticheskoe prognozirovanie integral'nogo riska narusheniya priemlemogo vypolneniya sovokupnosti standartnyh processov v zhiznennom cikle sistem vysokoj dostupnosti. Chast' 1. Matematicheskie modeli i metody. Sistemy vysokoj dostupnosti. 2021. T. 17. № 3. S. 16–31 (in Russian).
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16. Kostogryzov and V. Korolev, Probabilistic Methods for Cognitive Solving of Some Problems in Artificial Intelligence Systems. Probability. Combinatorics and Control, InTechOpen, 2020. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.89168
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19. Kostogryzov A., Makhutov N., Nistratov A., Reznikov G. Probabilistic predictive modeling for complex system risk assessments. Time Series Analysis. New Insights. IntechOpen. 2023. P. 73–105. http://mts.intechopen.com/articles/show/title/probabilistic-predictive-modelling-for-complex-system-risk-assessments.