G.V. Antsev1, V.P. Gaenko2, A.P. Mashtakov3, V.A. Sarychev4

1–4 Scientific and production enterprise «Radar mms» (Saint Petersburg, Russia)
2 Scientific Research Center for Security of Technical Systems 12 Central Research Institute of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (Saint Petersburg, Russia)
2 gaen@mail.ru, 4 Sarychev_va@radar-mms.com

The stage of organization and planning of conceptual forecasting of development directions of new technically complex system objects (other products) of industrial and defense purpose is characterized by a great variety of their construction, as well as uncertainty in the choice of the most preferable (promising) variants of their development. The choice of conceptual appearance of such objects is the most responsible "zero" stage of the life cycle (LC) of the objects, miscalculations and the cost of errors on which increase many times in the future.

To develop methodical aspects of the system foresight-technology of organization and conduction of conceptual forecasting of development directions of technically complex system objects in conditions of uncertainty, implementation risks, confidentiality and time limit with the purpose of further, more complete elaboration of the most promising variants at the stage of advance project using traditional approaches.

The main provisions of the system foresight technology for forecasting options for the development of technically complex system objects are substantiated.

The proposed technology provides a universal methodological basis for supporting and making decisions on the choice of promising concepts for building the appearance of promising technology in conditions of risk, uncertainty and confidentiality.

Antsev G.V., Gaenko V.P., Mashtakov A.P., Sarychev V.A. System foresight-technology of conceptual forecasting of development directions of technically complex system objects. Achievements of modern radioelectronics. 2025. V. 79. № 4. P. 6–18. DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.18127/j20700784-202504-01 [in Russian]

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