G.V. Antsev1, V.P. Gaenko2, V.А. Sarychev3

1 Electronic Instrumentation at V.I. Ulyanov (Lenin) SPbGETU «LETI» (St. Petersburg, Russia)

1,3 JSC «Scientific and production enterprise «Radar MMS» (St. Petersburg, Russia)

2 Research Center 12 of the CRI of the Ministry of Defense RF (St. Petersburg, Russia)

The main provisions of the foresight methodology for comparative evaluation of the results of conceptual pre-research design of complex innovative equipment are substantiated. By foresight, the authors understand the methodology of heuristic, pre-research design of scientific and technological development of a technically complex science-intensive system object, considered as an additional stage in the life cycle of creating new objects, based on the forecast of needs, the state of the technological reserve, a comprehensive account of military-political, tactical-technical-economic, environmental, resource and other aspects. Forsyth's conclusions are based on plausible reasoning, the truth of the conclusion of which is not always reliable, but only more or less likely, and therefore controversial and conditional.

The authors believe that it is possible to increase the evidence and reduce the uncertainty of the foresight conclusions by decomposing the problem as a component of the general problem, structuring it, and constructing an appropriate algorithm for the foresight procedure based on the hierarchy analysis method.

The foresight research is based on an algorithm that implements a 5-level system for making a rational decision. The algorithm is an ordered procedure (sequence) of estimates from a given (initial) state in the sequence: the resource used (a set of alternatives) - criteria and indicators for evaluating alternatives – activities (functions, tasks to be solved) - aspects that affect the functional utility (efficiency) of the object – likely outcomes (evaluation results).

A variant of solving a practical problem is considered, which defines and illustrates the algorithm-the sequence and rules for building the hierarchy of the process, describing the attributes of the model and performing calculations to determine the promising concepts of building samples (determining the significance (prospects) of alternatives.

Antsev G.V., Gaenko V.P., Sarychev V.А. Foresight as a methodology of conceptual analysis pre-research forecasting and evaluation of development directions (options) technically complex system objects. Achievements of modern radioelectronics. 2022. V. 76. № 11. P. 25–39. DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.18127/j20700784-202211-03 [in Russian]

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