Prognostics of qualitative changes in organizational and technical systems

In the theory of systems it is marked, that occurrence of jumps in development of the system is the most difficult for researching and forecasting a system in its future. A jump is understood as a fast transition of a system to a new qualitative condition which is caused by slowly collected quantitative changes of its characteristics. A moment of the jump is a transition of the system from one steady condition to another one. Theoretical preconditions of forecasting of spasmodic changes in a qualitative condition of organizational and technical systems are considered. It is shown that forecasting of a moment and a size of the jump can be carried out by modeling a process of development of the investigated system. The sequence of these stages is presented. The final step of modeling is forecasting of a probable character of the process in its further devel-opment. Thus possible variants of the development of the process and ways of its management are important to choose the most rational way.