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Journal Science Intensive Technologies №3 for 2017 г.
Article in number:
Improving information support of decision-making in conditions of uncertainty when assessing the performance of special purpose systems
Authors:
G.V. Antsev - Ph. D. (Eng.), Associate Professor, General Director - General Designer, JSC «Concern «Morinsys-Agat» (Moscow) E-mail: info@concern-agat.ru A.K. Krasnikov - Dr. Sc. (Eng.), Professor, Deputy Head of Staff training and retraining Scientific and Tutorial Center, JSC «Concern «Morinsys-Agat» (Moscow) E-mail: info@concern-agat.ru E.S. Novikov - Dr. Sc. (Eng.), Professor, Program Chief Designer - Head of Staff training and retraining Scientific and Tutorial Center, JSC «Concern «Morinsys-Agat» (Moscow) E-mail: info@concern-agat.ru
Abstract:
The paper discusses the informational aspects of creation of systems of special purpose enterprises (SPES). It is noted that to the modern SSN are generally increasingly high requirements for the quality of their performance and operational characteristics. At the same time imposed more stringent limits to financial costs and timing of development of such systems. All this leads to the necessity of deep and thorough information analysis of influence of accepted administrative and technical solutions on the final result - efficiency of application of SSN for its intended purpose. It is noted that one of the urgent scientific-technical problems is to improve communication systems to support managerial decision-making in conditions of various types of risks and uncertainties. It is shown that the decisions taken in risk conditions include the following, the results of which are not defined, but the probability which is a priori known or can be calculated using a specially developed mathematical models. It is noted that the development of specific mathematical models and application of analytical methods of computer simulation are effective for estimation of quality of functioning of special purpose systems with different risks, particularly when dealing with poorly structured problems. In the present work, as an example, the methods of evaluation of quality of functioning of the designed (or upgraded) systems ship air defense combat confrontation with the air attack, which can consist of either anti-radar missiles (PRR) or from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The technique of designing mathematical models, allowing to estimate the dynamics of the military confrontation in the interaction of these systems. Given a formula dependences for calculation of performance indicators combat confrontation. In developing the model the mathematical apparatus of the theory of queuing systems, probability theory, computer simulation.
Pages: 7-12
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