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Journal Science Intensive Technologies №12 for 2016 г.
Article in number:
Elements of modeling and prediction of the special situations of crisis zones
Keywords: crisis zones special situations forecasting monitoring situational simulation situational awareness situational man-agement comprehensive system of forecasting monitoring and forecasting method of scenarios automated decision support system
Authors:
A.V. Efremov - Cherepovets Higher Military Engineering School of Radio Electronics Y.I. Serebryakov - Ph. D. (Eng.), Associate Professor, Cherepovets Higher Military Engineering School of Radio Electronics E-mail: chvviur2@mil.ru S.A. Zhavoronkov - Cherepovets Higher Military Engineering School of Radio Electronics E-mail: chvviur2@mil.ru S.Y. Zelencov - Cherepovets Higher Military Engineering School of Radio Electronics E-mail: chvviur2@mil.ru Y.N. Gaychuk - Cherepovets Higher Military Engineering School of Radio Electronics E-mail: chvviur2@mil.ru
Abstract:
Forecasting and monitoring of the special situations of crisis zones provide the basis for decision-making on security and stability to counter the problems of the emergence of non-standard situations of economic, scientific, technical, social, information, resources and other capacities. Any special situations (SS) can be represented by a certain situational model. The existence of this model allows us to study the processes taking place or took place in the operating area, and contribute to the emergence of the SS area. The presence of situational model allows for a certain approach to predict certain events and situations that contribute to or result in the appearance of this special situation. Of great importance for the prediction of complex dynamic systems, multi-factor of socio-economic phenomena, crises, conflicts acquire the so-called integrated forecasting system. Currently, scenarios method is increasingly used for operational and long-term monitoring in special situations of crisis zones, development of advanced methods for monitoring and prediction of special situations of crisis zones, and is one of perspective directions of creation of software and hardware support for computer-based automated and automated decision support systems solutions for the decision making person.
Pages: 51-56
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