350 rub
Journal Science Intensive Technologies №3 for 2012 г.
Article in number:
Indistinct dynamic system of support acceptances of weather-depending decisions at maintenance shooting and fire management
Keywords: system of support of decision-making hydrometeorological maintenance of shooting and fire management the theory of fuzzy sets fuzzy expert systems a scenary forecasts method adequacy of the accepted decisions the subjective entrance information
Authors:
V.V. Mikhailov, V.V. Popov, S.L. Kirnosov
Abstract:
Article is devoted construction of dynamic system of support acceptance of weather-depending decisions at hydrometeorological maintenance shooting and the fire management, the processing based on methods indistinct to the expert information. Efficiency and safety of carrying out of shooting and special operations on fire defeat of objects and groupings of armies baking sheets are in essential dependence on the weather conditions, which account is carried out now by the person, making the decision, on the qualitative-empirical level. Calculation of ballistic average values of weather data for a moment of opening the fire demands application not only the fact sheet about weather conditions, but also their prognostic values. The existing prognostic meteorological information is far nonideal. Besides, techniques of its application with support and decision-making on performance of shooting in the conditions of meteorological uncertainty don't consider the fact of absence of the determine dependences of efficiency of carrying out of shooting from weather characteristics. The exit from this position is constructions of dynamic system of support acceptance of weather-depending decisions in which the account of importance of influences of uncontrollable stochastic meteorological factors is carried out from use value judgment received from experts on the basis of a method of range alternatives. For an estimation of ecological consequences of fire defeat objects use of a method of the scenary forecasts which essence consists in classification of certain hydrometeorological conditions (scenarios) and carrying out of the detailed analysis by is-following of their qualitative and quantitative parameters is optimum. The urgency of a problem solved in article is proved by possibility of increase of adequacy of accepted decisions taking into account subjective opinions of experts and essential increase of efficiency and safety carrying out of shooting in the conditions of stochastic influence of some meteorological factors
Pages: 3-8
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