V. A. Gusachenko, S. A. Zakharchenko

The Article is devoted to the development modeling method of security threats. This method is takes into account probabilities of occurrence and development of threats, dynamics and uncertainty of initial data. The offered simulation method carries describes the system of threats, its structure units, the problem space, dynamics and mechanisms of interaction of units. The description of the threats system units includes: set of indistinct positions , set of indistinct transitions , indistinct function of incidences and ? , where are functions of accessories of entry and output incidences of indistinct positions and indistinct transitions , k - a variable which defines value of appropriate function, a vector of indistinct initial labelling of indistinct positions of model , and predicates L which defines additional conditions of f transitions performance. The model structure is created by sets of indistinct units , , , , accessory functions μ(*) and attributes of the specified sets. Mapping of changing security threats dynamics the direct and return task. The essence of the direct task consists in forecasting of threats escalation by extrapolation of a trajectory taking into account probabilities . And the return task solves by using trajectory interpolation , when flowing j network markings values are presented. The direct task solution is carried out on the basis of rules of transitions initialization and operation of. First the vector of initial marking of an indistinct network is defined and the subset of the flagged positions is selected. Then the set of entry incidences is defined and the subset of the resolved transitions is formed. After that calculation of probabilities of the beginning of process of "operation" of the resolved transitions in a parsed instant is made. Thus authors started with the following supposition: the state of security threat is changing, when the performing at its current level action, have reached (or are close to achieve) their goals. The ratio of the value of the reached effect of the threat generation system at the current time to its demanded value. It is offered to use as a rate of achieving goals. Level of the reached effect time is offered for estimating by using the ratio of a population mean of number of the solved tasks during the process of threat factors formation to the total quantity N of tasks of the given stage of escalation the threat . The security threats simulation method enlarge knowledge of dangers for it management-economic educations by revealing before new factors. It gives the own security system a possibility to make the necessary solutions necessary for implementation of preventive actions, to decrease those dangers.