O.Yu. Makarov - Dr.Sci. (Eng.), professor, designing and manufacture radio equipment chairs, Voronezh State Technical University. E-mail: mou@hotbox.ru
A.V. Turetsky - Ph.D. (Eng.), associate professor, designing and manufacture radio equipment chairs, Voronezh State Technical University. E-mail: tav7@mail.ru

When developing various equipment the automated systems of decision-making or the expert systems (ES) are even more often applied to reduction of terms and reduction of cost of design. Expert systems incorporate knowledge of leading experts in area of design and allow less qualified engineers to choose a necessary way of design in a mode of consultation. Certainly, ES completely can't replace the real specialist expert as the person possesses ability to generate new knowledge and to solve non-standard new problems. However at the solution of a large number of standard tasks ordinary engineers it gives an essential prize on time as often at the enterprise it isn't enough experts of experts, and they can't capture all projects. Design of electronic means taking into account mechanical influences at a choice of ways of technical solutions requires ES application. At an assessment of the facts having numerical expression, for example at an assessment of loadings of a design, Bayesian approach of submission of the knowledge base and result calculation is convenient. At Bayesian approach degree of reliability of each of the facts of the knowledge base is estimated by probability which accepts values in the range from 0 to 1. For definition of probability of the initial facts of the knowledge base carry out or statistical tests, or interrogate experts. Such approach is also convenient at uncertainty in a choice of several hypotheses. Thus constantly there is a revaluation in process of receipt of new data. Finally, one hypothesis which allows to draw the corresponding conclusion is allocated. The considered structure of the knowledge base and the expert system based on the theorem Bayes can be used for the analysis of results of modeling of mechanical characteristics of electronic blocks, printed-circuit boards, and also solder connections of separate components. The developed expert system will allow engineers, developers of electronic means in the analysis of results of modeling of designs on mechanical loadings (vibrations, blows and so forth), for example in PRO/ENGINEER, and also in decision-making of further optimization of a design.