А.A. Kostin, V.A. Kostin

Proposed a mathematical model of the physical protection system object based on a discrete Markov chain. Shows the possibility of evaluating the effectiveness and vulnerabilities of physical protection system based on discrete Markov chains. Justified by the assumption that no-effect processes in the system of physical protection of the object represented by states. For a simple example of a system of physical protection office building constructed state graph of the system as a discrete Markov chain, given a system of linear equations describing these states, determine the ratio for the probability characteristics of security, risk and vulnerability. Shows the principal possibility of a performance management system of physical protection by changing the probability and timing of the system elements.