350 rub
Journal Nonlinear World №12 for 2013 г.
Article in number:
Nonlinear model for change in the population of earth taking into account of natural resources exhaustion
Authors:
L. F. Chernogor - Dr.Sc. (Phys.-Math.), Professor of the Space Radiophysics Department, V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University. E-mail: Leonid.F.Chernogor@univer.ua
Abstract:
The model for the population on the planet Earth advanced by S. P. Kapitsa has been generalized. The exhaustion of the nonrenewable natural resources is taken into account. A simple analytical model for changes in the population N(t) is presented. The changes N(t) have mathematically been modeled in response to changes in the rate of resource consumption. The misallocation of resources has been shown to result in an abrupt drop in N already in the middle of the XXI century, which results in an absolute degradation of our civilization in XXIII - XXIV centuries. A reasonable management of the planet-s resources can result in the population stabilization at a level significantly lower than the S. P. Kapitsa model predicts. However, the stabilization is preceded by an increase of 7-9 billion people in the middle of the XXI century. The optimal volume of the world's population leading to the life with dignity is equal to approximately 6 billion.
Pages: 886-893
References

  1. Mal'tus T.R. Opy't o zakone narodonaseleniya. SPb., 1868.
  2. Polland J.H. Mathematical models for the growth of human populations. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press. 1973.
  3. Keyfitz N. Applied Mathematic Demography. N. Y.: Wiley. 1977.
  4. Sady'k N. Narodonaselenie mira. M.: JuFPLA. 1990.
  5. Keyfitz N. Flieger W. World population growth and aging. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago press. 1990.
  6. Ehrlich A., Ehrlich P. The population explosion. L.: Arrow Books. 1991.
  7. Population situation in 1991 with special emphasis on age structure. N. Y.: UN. 1991.
  8. Akimov A.V. Mirovoe naselenie: vzglyad v budushhee. M.: Nauka. 1992.
  9. Kapicza S.P. Fenomenologicheskaya teoriya rosta naseleniya Zemli // Uspexi fizicheskix nauk. 1996. T. 166. №1. S. 63-79.
  10. Kapicza S.P. Obshhaya teoriya rosta chelovechestva: skol'ko lyudej zhilo, zhivet i budet zhit' na Zemle. M.: Nauka. 1999.
  11. Kapitza S.P. Global Population Blow-Up and After. The Demographic Revolution and Information Society. Hamburg: Tolleranza. 2006.
  12. Kapicza S.P. Paradoksy' rosta. Zakony' razvitiya chelovechestva. M.: Al'pina non-fikshin. 2009.
  13. Kapicza S.P. K teorii rosta naseleniya Zemli // Uspexi fizicheskix nauk. 2010. T. 180. №12. S. 1337-1346.
  14. Shklovskij I.S. Vselennaya, zhizn', razum / pod red. N.S. Kardasheva i V.I. Moroza. 6-e izd., dop. M.: Nauka. Gl. red. fiz.-mat. lit. 1987.
  15. Samarskij A.A. Galaktionov V.A., Kurdyumov S.P., Mixajlov A.P. Rezhimy' s obostreniem v zadachax dlya kvazilinejny'x parabolicheskix uravnenij. M.: Nauka. 1987.
  16. Chernogor L.F. O nelinejnosti v prirode i nauke. Xar'kov: XNU im. V.N. Karazina. 2008.
  17. Chernogor L.F. Fizika i e'kologiya katastrof. Monografiya. Xar'kov: XNU im. V.N. Karazina. 2012.
  18. Chernogor L.F. Kosmos, Zemlya, chelovek: aktual'ny'e problemy' Xar'kov: XNU imeni V.N. Karazina. 2010.
  19. Chernogor L.F. Radiofizicheskie i geomagnitny'e e'ffekty' startov raket. Xar'kov: XNU im. V.N. Karazina. 2009.
  20. Chernogor L.F. Estestvoznanie. Integriruyushhij kurs. Xar'kov: XNU im. V.N. Karazina. 2007.
  21. Mir i chelovek. Spravochnik. Xar'kov: Prapor. 1998.