V.V. Sharov

Questions of forecasting of a technical condition an electric equipment draw the increasing attention of the experts engaged in questions of operation in our country and abroad. It is caused by that in connection with a growing role of the various automated control systems of the technological processes, special information measuring and managing systems value of a prediction of a technical condition of systems in structure of which they are maintained grows. Forecasting of a technical condition is directly connected to reliability of an electric equipment under operating conditions, therefore his main purpose consists, at use of the system approach, and also systems of technical diagnostics and the operational control, not revealing and localization of refusals, and their prevention and development of recommendations which, finally, are directed on increase of his reliability and efficiency. At transition to strategy of operation of an electric equipment on a technical condition there is an opportunity to operate his condition by duly switching, for example, on a reserve, transition to new operating conditions during operation but to operate a condition, without forecasting an expected condition and creation for this purpose a corresponding database purposefully it is impossible. For an electric equipment providing energy consumers, it is especial the maximum categories, it is important to establish not only that they are efficient during the operational control, but also that they will continue to keep at operation an efficient condition during some future interval of time. At the system approach the task is solved with use of two models - with the control of parameters and over the control of a level of reliability which supplement each other. Practice shows, that the variety and stochastic character of influence of operational factors on an electric equipment result to that at the same operating time or duration of operation even the same electric equipment under identical conditions and operating modes have a various condition. In this connection the operating time or calendar service life does not characterize unequivocally technical condition of an electric equipment during his operation. Process of change of a condition of an electric equipment is submitted as three components describing irreversible and convertible changes, and also an error of means of the measurements used at the operational control. Stages of procedural model of process of forecasting of a condition of an electric equipment and feature of their use are considered