E.N. Zakharov – Dr.Sc. (Eng.), Professor, Military Academy of Strategic Missile Forces named after Peter the Great, Balashikha

E-mail: motorkom.z@mail.ru

A.V. Chechkin – Dr.Sc. (Phys.-Math.), Corresponding Member of Academy of Technological Sciences of the RF, Professor, Financial University under the Government of the RF

E-mail: a.chechkin@mail.ru

A new approach to operational risk assessment of potentially dangerous objects (PDO) based on the use of a radical environment on neural-like elements (NLE) and the express analysis method are proposed.

In accordance with Federal law № 68-FZ of 21.12.1994 «on protection of the population and territories from natural and man-made emergencies», a PDO is an object of natural or artificial origin with a high level of potential danger to the population and (or) the environment.

As a rule, the evaluation of certain characteristics of PDO involves considering them as open complex systems (OCS). Open complex systems (OCS) are understood primarily as open systems with explicit or indirect human involvement. For example, the operator-machine system, organizational structure, society, etc. [1].

The OCS has a large number of complex, poorly formalized input and output actions. They make up a mixed, obscure and immeasurable background of the internal and external environment. For example, morality, spirit, cooperation, loyalty, etc.  System analysis and synthesis of OCS, as a rule, does not lend itself to comprehensive formalization. It is believed that starting from a certain level of complexity, the system is easier to create (manufacture, transform, change) and put into action than to display a formal model.  Even when a good formal OCS model is available, for example for complex technical systems, the conditions for rapid analysis and rapidly changing synthesis conditions often require rapid estimates within reasonable accuracy. 

Any OCS for studying its properties can be represented as a specific structure. The problem of purposeful (for subsequent research) formalization of the structure under study, and even more so the problem of purposeful changes in the structure, can often not be solved by existing mathematical means. At the same time, the development of a common unified model for a comprehensive analysis of the OCS (the object of research, hereinafter referred to as the «system») with its further use for operational analysis of various properties of the system is impractical due to its informalizability and complexity.

In order to reasonably simplify the formalization and ensure the efficiency of the analysis of the OCS operation, the following is proposed. Based on a redundant model in the form of a radical environment [1], we can distinguish private, simplified models of a system with one-sided restrictions, built because of NLE. Further, only within the limited structure of the system to analyze, as a rule, one task (properties, functions or characteristics of the system). The composition (if it will be necessary in the future) of such «restricted models» («thematic models») and the express method of OCS estimation will allow us to expand quickly the range of OCS modeling as a whole to the required level [2].

Zakharov E.N., Chechkin A.V. Assessment of risks in the operation of potentially dangerous and other objects using the radical environment on the neural-like elements. Neurocomputers. 2020. V. 22. № 2. P. 43–52.  DOI: 10.18127/j19998554-202002-04

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