K.V. Arseniev1

1Kometa Corporation JSC (Moscow, Russia)

1kostars@inbox.ru

The aim of the article is to analyze the mathematical models used in epidemiology and virology to assess the spread of epidemics in order to apply them in the tasks of controlling the spread of computer viruses, taking into account the presence of vulnerabilities in computer networks (CN), the development and spread of malicious software (MS), which contributes to the emergence of a "computer virus epidemic". In this regard, it is necessary to study the preconditions and dynamics of the development of this negative factor in the functioning of CS on the basis of the application of established approaches that have been used and are used in medicine to monitor epidemics from the beginning of their scientific study to the present day. The property of VPO, as well as malicious biological microorganisms (biological viruses), to infect the population of the planet, as well as illegitimate software (SW), penetrating (unauthorized downloading) into the means of computing equipment (SWT, computers), determines their similarity to biological viruses, which infecting a healthy cell seize control over its synthesis, and its internal defense mechanisms, in most cases, are powerless against them. Once control over cellular synthesis is established, the virus begins to use cellular resources for its reproduction and replication, creating millions of copies of itself. Similar to biological viruses, computer viruses (CVs), as the main type of VPO, can infect legitimate software installed on a user's computer and/or be transmitted from one computer to another. By infecting other programs, viruses spread from one program to another, both within a single SVT and between different SVTs, making them more dangerous than other classes of computer attacks. Similar to biological viruses, CVs also multiply rapidly and create duplicates (clones) and embed them in computer networks (CNs), files, system areas of FTNs, and other objects. Unlike any other VE (e.g., Trojan horses), duplicates (clones) of CVs retain the ability to spread further.

This similarity of infection processes in a healthy organism allows us to use the scientific apparatus used in medicine, in particular, in epidemiology when studying computerized viral epidemics (CVE). So, it is known from medical reference books that epidemic (Greek epidemia - epidemic disease, from epi. epidemic, from epi - on, among and demos - people) is a widespread spread of any infectious disease (plague, smallpox, Spanish, typhus, cholera, diphtheria, scarlet fever, measles, influenza, COVID-19). For the emergence of an epidemic process, a necessary condition is the presence of a source - the causative agent of the infectious process, the mechanism of its transmission and the susceptibility of people to the disease. Thus, computer viruses can penetrate into the program code, disrupt the algorithm of the infected program or the functioning mode of the entire CS node, self-generate a virus program, selectively affect files, memory, boot sectors, etc.

Arseniev K.V. Analysis of mathematical models for estimating of viral epidemics in order to apply them in the tasks of controlling the computer virus propagation. Information-measuring and Control Systems. 2024. V. 22. № 2. P. 5−10. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18127/j20700814-202402-01 (in Russian)

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