M.N. Bobov - Dr.Sc. (Eng.), Professor, Head of Department, OJSC «AGAT-control systems» - Managing Company of the Holding «Geoinformation control systems», Minsk, Republic of Belarus. E-mail: bobov-mn@agat.by G.D. Harachka - Deputy Director, General Engineer, OJSC «AGAT-control systems» - Managing Company of the Holding «Geoinformation control systems», Minsk, Republic of Belarus A.A. Obukhovich - Deputy Head of Department, OJSC «AGAT-control systems» - Managing Company of the Holding «Geoin-formation control systems», Minsk, Republic of Belarus

The paper proposes a system for automated damage assessment carried out by identifying and deductive analysis of critical security events, each of which can be represented as a set of dangerous (causal) events caused by information security threats. Based on the hierarchical decomposition of critical security events, such as the place of origin of their component of dangerous events, and on the factors that contributes to their appearance, expressions for determining estimates of the probability of critical events at each level of the hierarchy.

 

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