A.I. Vaguine, N.G. Volchenkov, I.E. Kouznetsov

The technique described in the article provides the ability to verify the theoretical conclusions by constructing prediction and comparison with the current alleged incidents. The technique uses an approach based on factual information about the current state of objects in general. It is proposed to decompose each specific violation or deviation in the basic sequence of elementary adverse events. The probabilities of elementary adverse events show how these events are random in the current situation, and the probabilities of transition from one event to another can be judged on the real effectiveness of safety and the quality of services. In technique there is data formalization is carried out, the accumulation of which leads to the formation of sufficient statistics in order to carry out calculations of risk events, taking into account the damage to implement a more complete analysis of the security of dangerous objects, to evaluate changes on the results of corrective actions, and conduct a mathematically justified security management. This paper presents a functional diagram of the system vulnerability assessment. System vulnerability assessment can provide an analytical process and present the results of experts to assess the vulnerability, risk assessment, taking into account the damage and provide information support to the identification of crisis situations, predict their occurrence and evaluate the safety of dangerous objects. If statistical information is enough then it is possible to build a model of security of dangerous objects, which is employed to count the probabilities of influencing the final event. Modeling the network reveal previously hidden information on trends, allowing to carry out corrective measures and calculate the possible outcomes. To predict the state of the object's security controls and identifying hidden trends in the processes used simulation. The objectives are to evaluate the influence of modeling changes in external and internal parameters of the control system in the state of security and performance evaluation of preventive measures. The object of imitation are the incidents leading to the cause-effect transitions between adverse events. Implemented technique which uses a formalized information, causal event trees and Bayesian networks, can provide an analytical process and present the results of experts to assess the safety and risks, with damage taken into account . The system provides information support to the identification of crisis situations, predict their occurrence and evaluate the safety of objects and industries.