A. V. Tkachenko, Yu. A. Halin

Any leading group of an enterprise usually pays main attention to the problem of support of stable work of all the business processes. An Beneficial effect depend on the ability of company management to keep up failure probability of any enterprise subsystem at low rates and to keep up the ability to restore main activity result when force-majeure at high level the basis of working stability growth is the timely revelation and elimination of the emergencies and prediction of possible further developments. Problems, for example, may arise in the share of logistics in the process of production as itself in sales of products and service. The main source of uncertainty in operation of business is external environment that is suppliers, consumers, competitors and mercantile business. In the given work we produce the mathematical solution of the problem of estimated probability of the failure in delivery of production materials.