G. P. Zhigulin

Modern information technology gets into many spheres of a society more deeply. This process becomes so scale that mentions vital interests of the state, especially in the field of information safety. It causes an urgency of protection of information systems and resources which realizes the analysis of a resource of a field of threats, system of protection of the information and forecasting of its condition. Two basic problems of the mathematical description of system of protection is a research of system of protection of given object and research of the general level of security of the corporate environment. Research of system of protection of object is necessary for a choice of optimum system of its protection, and research of level of security of the corporate environment - for development of the general recommendations about security increase. The description of threats and protection systems can be more or less detailed. Than more detailed it will be, we can receive especially exact information, and the more so the correct decision to accept. But for more detailed description it is necessary more than the initial information, and the analysis becomes more difficult. Two simplified models of system of protection of the information - with definition of a population mean of damage and with definition of probability of overcoming of system, and also a population mean of time of overcoming of system are considered. Use of likelihood, statistical principles of modeling is natural in the field of systems of protection of the information, including research of system of protection of given object. Really, the result of work of system depends on character of attacking influence which cannot be known in advance