A.I. Kostogryzov1

1 FRC «Computer Science and Control» RAS (Moscow, Russia)
1 Е-mail: akostogr@gmail.com

This work is a continuation of the 1st part of the article, which was published in No. 2-2024 and it contained the proposed mathematical models and methods for predicting compound and integral risks of destruction of the protection system of spiritual and moral values in conditions of uncertainties and heterogeneous threats, as well as an example of rough modeling of the system, when the essence of each component element manifested itself without taking into account any additional interrelated support from the state, communities, family within this element.

The protection system of spiritual and moral values is defined in the work as a combination of the legislative rights and obligations, organizational, technical, informational, educational, religious and family measures, ordered to achieve the goal of strengthening the unity of peoples on the basis of the all-Russian civil identity, preserving the primordial universal principles and socially significant guidelines for social development in accordance with paragraph 92 of the "National Strategy security of the Russian Federation". The proposed 2nd part of the article is more applied in nature and contains, in addition to the example of the 1st part, five examples of more adequate modeling of the system for assessing risks in protecting traditional Russian spiritual and moral values.

The protection of traditional Russian spiritual and moral values belongs to the strategic national priorities of the Russian Federation. The "Strategy ..." identifies current threats and tasks to be solved in Russia. In order to solve the tasks effectively in conditions of uncertainties and heterogeneous threats, special models and methods are required that allow not only to assess risks, but also to justify proactive measures to counter threats for the protection system of spiritual and moral values. However, today there are no such models and methods. A critical methodological contradiction has arisen between the objective needs for an effective solution of the tasks of the "Strategy ..." and the real possibilities in assessing the risks to the protection system of spiritual and moral values. This work is devoted to solving the problem of creating probabilistic models and methods (by adapting existing ones) that allow not only to predict the risks of destruction of the protection system of spiritual and moral values in conditions of uncertainties and heterogeneous threats, but also to justify proactive measures to counter threats.

The main purpose of the work (in two parts) is to create a scientifically based methodological approach to the analytical predicting of the risks of destruction of the system of protection of spiritual and moral values in conditions of uncertainties and heterogeneous threats. The purpose of the 2nd part of the work is a more complete demonstration of the efficiency of the proposed approach to modeling the system with the interpretation of the results obtained using plausible examples.

In the 1st part of the work, mathematical models and methods for predicting compound and integral risks of destruction of the protection system of spiritual and moral values in conditions of uncertainties and heterogeneous threats with the possibilities of traceable analytical dependence on influencing factors are proposed. An example of a rough modeling of the system of protection of spiritual and moral values is given. This 2nd part of the work is devoted to predicting compound and integral risks using more adequate structural models that take into account additional interrelated support for the system of protection of spiritual and moral values from the state, communities, and the family.

In the 1st and 2nd parts of the work, six examples of risk predicting are presented together, illustrating the probabilistic modeling of the main entities of the protection system of spiritual and moral values as a system of systems with varying degrees of detail of the constituent elements: element 1 – life, dignity, human rights and freedoms; 2 – patriotism, citizenship; 3 – service to the Fatherland and responsibility for its fate; 4 – high moral ideals, a strong family; 5 – creative work (including science and creativity); 6 – the priority of the spiritual over the material, humanism (including art and literature); 7 – mercy, justice, collectivism, mutual assistance and mutual respect; 8 – historical memory and continuity of generations, unity of the peoples of the country.

The proposed approach to modeling the protection system of spiritual and moral values provides opportunities not only for analytical predicting of compound and integral risks in conditions of uncertainties and heterogeneous threats, but also for rationale proactive measures to counter threats.

Kostogryzov A.I. Probabilistic modeling the protection system of spiritual and moral values. Part 2. The risks prediction examples. Highly Available Systems. 2024. V. 20. № 3. P. 37−50. DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.18127/j20729472-202403-04 (in Russian)

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