A.S. Zakharov1, D.A. Sharipov2, S.V. Matseevich3, I.V. Trundayev4, I.B. Zager5

1–4 Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Moscow, Russia)
5 Lomonosov Moscow State University (Moscow, Russia)
1 zakharov.as17@physics.msu.ru, 2 dasharipov@fa.ru, 3 cvmac@mail.ru

Currently, there is a need to develop special software and algorithmic support for systems to support the decision-making of the dispatcher of the power plant to minimize damage associated with uneven primary regulation of power in the power grid during the distribution of electricity in an accident. It is proposed to develop a model for minimizing damage to electrical equipment of critical infrastructure facilities from power changes, taking into account the stochastic nature of the energy consumption level in an emergency situation, based on the method of smoothing the growth of allocated power. Analytical dependences of the generation capacity on the operating time are formed and the results of the process of restoring the planned balance of electricity power from time to time in case of emergency situations are shown. Based on the results of the evaluation of the original probabilistic fractal parameter, energy consumption levels are regulated, helping to reduce damage and increase the reliability of electrical equipment. The presented model makes it possible to form a decision support system for the dispatcher of the power plant to minimize damage in emergency situations. The data obtained can be used by the dispatcher of the situational centers of energy facilities in managing the state of the network in case of accidents.

Zakharov A.S., Sharipov D.A., Matseevich S.V., Trundayev I.V., Zager I.B. Decision support system for the dispatcher of the situation center
in case of emergency changes in energy consumption based on the smoothing method. Dynamics of complex systems. 2025. V. 19. № 5. P. 69−76. DOI: 10.18127/j19997493-202505-08 (In Russian).

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