A.E. Nikolaev1, I.A. Abramov2 

1,2 Military University of Radioelectronics (Cherepovets, Russian Federation)

Until recently, being only a developing scientific and practical trend, AI has now formed into a separate industry regulated by the state, the development efficiency of which largely depends on the socio-economic conditions created for it. The assessment of these conditions is an important task, the implementation of which is necessary to ensure the further development of the artificial intelligence industry. This paper presents and implements an assessment approach of the current conditions for the development of the AI industry based on a selected set of indicators. These indicators include:

• volumes of state and commercial financing; 
• number of educational institutions that train specialists for the area;
• current personnel potential;
• level of industry specialists’ salaries;
• indicators characterizing the results of R&D in the field of AI, including the number of scientific publications and registered patents; – state share in the global semiconductor market.

By evaluating these indicators characterizing the artificial intelligence industry in Russia, the USA and China, the study carried out their comparative analysis and determined further development prospects for the domestic AI field along with the main high-tech opponents.

So, in 2020, Russian state investments in smart technologies amounted to about $40 million. By comparison, in the United States this figure amounted to $6 billion, and in China – $14.3 billion. The budgets of the defense departments for the development and integration of artificial intelligence for the specified period amounted to: in the USA – 927 million dollars, in China – about 1.6 billion dollars, in the Russian Federation – no more than 50 million dollars. The volume of commercial AI markets for 2020 amounted to: in the USA – about $76 billion, in China – $41.5 billion, in the Russian Federation – $66 million.

The number of educational institutions that train specialists for the artificial intelligence industry as of 2021 in the United States amounted to just over 100 units, in China – about 80, and in the Russian Federation – no more than 50. At the same time, these institutions in the United States are able to provide training for about 35 thousand students annually, in the PRC – more than 20 thousand, and in the Russian Federation – about 3.5 thousand.

By the beginning of 2020, there were more than 850 thousand AI specialists in the United States, about 50 thousand in the PRC, and less than 10 thousand in Russia. As of 2021, the average salary of employees working in the field of AI in commercial companies in the United States was about $15,000 per month; in defense structures, specialists in this field received about $5,000 per month. For comparison, in China, these figures were $5,000 and $2,000 per month, and in the Russian Federation, $3,000 and $1,000 per month, respectively.

The number of scientific publications in the field of smart technologies in 2021 in the United States amounted to about 150 thousand studies, in China – 138 thousand articles, in the Russian Federation – no more than 3.5 thousand articles. The total number of patents for smart technologies for the period 2015-2020 in the United States was about 27 thousand, in China – more than 3.5 thousand, in the Russian Federation – about 160.

By early 2021, the US accounted for only 12% share of the semiconductor industry, China for 9%. In turn, an import-oriented model has been formed in the Russian market of semiconductor devices, in which more than 95% are products of foreign manufacturers.

Consequently, the current conditions formed for the domestic artificial intelligence industry do not allow it to be highly competitive in the global market of smart systems, as well as quickly and efficiently implement the so-called "fourth industrial revolution". At the same time, the lack of capacity in Russia to build up capabilities in this area may lead to a strategic technology crisis in the near future.

Based on the result obtained, it can be stated that the issue of creating a favorable environment for the development of the AI industry in the Russian Federation is an acute cross-subject scientific and practical problem. To solve it, it is necessary to consider a wide range of discrete tasks focused on developing methods and approaches to improve the efficiency of intelligent technologies development and integration activities in conditions of limited financial, human, technological and computing resources.

Nikolaev A.E., Abramov I.A. Comparatives assessments of the main indicators defining the conditions for the artificial intelligence industry development in the Russian Federation, USA and PRC. Dynamics of complex systems. 2022. V. 16. № 3. P. 56−64. DOI: 10.18127/j19997493-202203-02 (in Russian)

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