Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas. However level of automation of dispatching complexes of management of gas-transport systems is low. One of problems of operation of the main gas pipelines (MG) is timely detection and elimination of supernumerary situations (SS) in the form of the ruptures occurring on pipes (threads) of MG.
The gas pipeline consists of several threads going in parallel which make a linear part of MG (LP MG). In some places there are also threads-crosspieces (lateral threads), leaders from one thread ЛЧ on another. The gas pipeline consists of the crosspieces containing the basic cranes and cranes-crosspieces. In case of rupture on LP MG it is necessary to block a place of rupture by closing of necessary cranes (localization) and to open a way of contour of gas through lateral threads opening of necessary cranes (contour). The sequence on closing and opening of cranes is called as the localization and contour scenario. For the set place of rupture there can be many scenarios of an exit from SS. They can be calculated, being guided by structure of interposition of threads of a gas pipeline (columns of MG).
However in practice it is not enough to calculate scenarios under the column of MG. The set crane to appear it can is impossible to open or close because of an inadmissible difference of pressure of gas to the crane and after the crane. And pressure upon MG sites changes in time. Thus, forecasting a condition of a gas pipeline about pressure of gas upon MG sites is necessary. The author offers algorithm of forecasting of a condition of MG which is based on iterative algorithm of modeling of transport of the gas, the developed I.R.Buhvalov (NIIIS of J.E.Sedakov). The algorithm of forecasting of a condition of MG should model a condition of a gas pipeline with an advancing on some interval of time. Thus modeling is conducted separately for each scenario of an exit from the SS, the MG calculated under the column. Thus, suitable scenarios are selected.
The algorithm of forecasting of a condition of MG is resulted in the present article in a short kind.