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Model of Sequence of Conflicts of Information Systems

Keywords:

Yu.L. Koziratsky, S.A. Budnikov, V.M. Kildjushevsky


In interests of a substantiation of the fundamental operational and tactical requirements to complexes of a means of active bucking, a stealthiness raise, to systems of complex protection there is a problem of modelling of cyclical process of overcoming of multiechelon defence systems, protection or guards and determination of is probability-temporary indicators of efficiency of the conflict. The case of overcoming is considered by the multipurpose system, the equipped means of active bucking, system of sequentially arranged protective boundaries. Such process is described as Semimarkov a circuit with continuous time. For the formalized exposition of originating cyclical disputed process methods of the orientated counts and transfer functions are used. Applying rules of the equivalent transformations transfer functions for successful and not successful possible total conditions are received. Being based on cyclical properties of considered process and using a means of generating functions expressions for an evaluation of probability of overcoming of system from n protective boundaries are received. Variants of overcoming with defeat of driven elements of a protective boundary and without defeat under condition of exponential approximation of a density function of time of overcoming of protective boundaries are considered. Using properties of a binominal formula and Beta-function transformation analytical expression of probability of overcoming of system of protective boundaries without dependence from defeat is received. The analysis of outcomes of modelling of overcoming of system from n boundaries depending on a variant of application and fixed time of overcoming allows to draw a conclusion on a possibility of a substantiation of the fundamental operational and tactical requirements to obligatory complexes of a means of active bucking, a raise of stealthiness, complex protection for in advance prospective value of number of boundaries.
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