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The method of analysis of dangerous industrial objects on the base of fuzzy fault trees


A. V. Senkov

Risk analysis spent in the conditions of uncertainty, a fuzziness of the information about dangerous industrial objects (DIO). Thus access to the information necessary for the analysis of risks is interfaced to economic and organizational dif-ficulties. Risks in DIO are understood as a combination of probability (possibility) of adverse event and its negative consequences (weight of this damage). One of the basic methods of the analysis of risks is a fault tree analysis in which basis the model of relationships of cause and effect of faults DIO with faults of its elements and other events lies. The fault tree represents as multilevel graph-logics structure of the causal interrelations received as a result of monitoring of dangerous situations upside-down, for definition of the possible reasons of its occurrence. The fault tree has both a number of disadvantages, including: complexity of the account of uncertainty of the information; impossibility of the account of a condition of partial faults. For elimination of these lacks, the concept of a fuzzy fault tree which each event is supplemented with indistinct characteristics are entered, allowing to estimate, accordingly, possibility of realization of risk and weight of consequences of this realization. Rules of aggregation of fuzzy characteristics and procedure of the analysis and an estimation of risks are offered. The example of work of a fuzzy fault tree is resulted.
May 29, 2020

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