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Mathematical Modeling of Socio Economic System Dynamics (on the Example of Russia)


Andreev V.V., Jarmulina O.O.

In this paper the mathematical model of socially economic system is developed on the basis of principles «predator- victim». As the basic cooperating elements of model and describing socially economic system are chosen: a level of industrial manufacture; a level of payment of work in total amount of the money incomes of the population; a level of the charged pensions; number of the students of high schools; quantity of the persons made crime; number of the unemployeds; number of the graduates of schools. The mathematical model is applied for the analysis and forecasting of a situation in Russia. Data of the state statistics with 1992 for 2006 years are used for identification of mathematical model parameters. Numerical decisions of mathematical model have been found by means of package MATLAB. At selection of model parameters the purpose consist in that on the interval of time corresponding the period of time with 1992 for 2006 years, settlement curves have qualitatively coincided with corresponding statistical data. Results of research have shown, that at kept tendencies of dynamics of socio-economic system of Russia crisis will reach a critical level by 2010 2011 years. The lead analysis allows to speak about a correctness of the investigated model, and it can be used for the analysis of dynamics of real socio-economic systems.

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