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Pancreatitis Prognostication and Estimation of its Severity Based on Fuzzy Logic in Decision Making

Keywords:

A.L. Loktionov, N.A. Korenevsky, L.P. Lazurina, I.L. Gavrilov


Among the whole range of tasks in the surgical gastroenterology, the problem of prognosticating and adequate mathematically proved assessment of severity of acute pancreatitis is of great importance. Among acute pathologies of abdominal cavity this disease comes up to 16% cases, 15-20% patients having severe complicated character. The social significance of the problem is determined by registering the highest level of incidences at the age of 30-50. The overall lethality due to acute pancreatitis makes from 1.94 to 2.08 per 1000 in Russian Federation. The researches concerning the improvement of managing acute pancreatitis may be carried out in various approaches, including the improvement of prognostication methods, early assessment of severity based on the modern mathematical methods and informative technologies. Investigating analysis of the data structure according to the type of the disease has revealed that the underlined types of the disease have indistinct “greatly” intercrossing borders and this makes the use of the indistinct logic of decision-making theory expedient as the basic mathematical tool. The given system of the indistinct solving rules, using the information on the content of microelements in person’s hair, electrical resistance of acupuncture points of an ear conch, query and examination findings, instrumental examination data, allows solving the problems of prognostication, early and differentiated detection of pancreatitis with the certainty of 0.9. Thus, it allows recommending the results obtained for putting into practice.
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