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Article:

# Interval analysis of risk sources threats to the security of dynamic system in the functioning

DOI 10.18127/j19998465-201811-04

Keywords:

N.A. Severtsev – Dr.Sc.(Eng.), Professor, Main Research Scientist, FRC «Computer Science and Control» of RAS (Moscow)
E-mail: wcan@ccas.ru
Nguyen Quang Thuong – Dr.Sc.(Eng.), State University of Management (Moscow)
E-mail: tikhonovrus@gmail.com

The article proposes an approach to the interval analysis of the risk sources of security threats of the dynamic system in the operation based on the method of geometric programming. A method of selecting a set of intervals for the protection system indicators is proposed to ensure that the conditions for minimizing the risk of sources of security threats to the dynamic system are met.
The interval analysis is considered for the case when the objective function is expressed as a sum of pozynomials and the criterion is given as a one-way or two-way interval (tolerance).
Stages of the decision of an interval problem of the choice of interval restrictions for the indicators of the protection system guaranteeing performance of a condition of a minimum of risk are stated.
Considering the property of sufficiency of the selected set of intervals is the method of calculation of additional weighting factors that reduce the probability of mistakenly certify the condition of the system (objects), as poor-quality (substandard).
On the found auxiliary (dual) variables the generating inequality is solved. The resulting vector of the solution allows to determine the desired set of interval restrictions on the performance of the protection system. In addition, the weight coefficients of the intervals providing the requirement for the criterion of the minimum of the total risk of DS are determined.
The model of DS risk distribution (decomposition), which is identical to the distribution of requirements for the reliability of the system elements, is considered.
A method of adjusting security projects functioning DS in the environment is presented.
Examples of selection of a set of interval restrictions on the performance of the protection system and the correction of safety projects of the DS are given.
The developed methods and models in solving practical problems are relevant in the protection of DS at all stages of their life cycle.

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