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Using agent-based approach and probabilistic models for creating spatial populations

DOI 10.18127/j19998465-201808-05

Keywords:

M.A. Burilina – Research Scientist, CEMI RAS (Moscow)
E-mail: maribu@mail.ru


The paper is about novelty of the application of the altered DNA of the genome allowed in a number of countries is just beginning to exist. Nobody can guess yet how favorable this kind of mutation will be in the future of humanity. Philosophers, sociologists, biologists of a number of countries and eras, composed ideas, thoughts, theories about an ideal, healthy world and nation. However, now we stand at the turn of the new humanity, which can choose a «healthy nation». In this paper, the author combines two directions of fundamental and applied science, on the one hand, this direction is in genetic engineering, and the second is the use of an agent-oriented approach to imitate the future society. The use of a corrected DNA molecule to create an embryo has already gained recognition in the west and positive experiences in China. Now, it is difficult to predict how the development of a new technology for editing the genome CRISPR/Cas9 can affect mutations of different generations. The question of how quickly the entire population will undergo a mutation, as it will affect future generations; disturb not only scientists, but also the whole world. While scientists are only conducting experiments on editing the DNA of the genome, but now it is worth considering how the DNA of a human embryo edited with the help of CRISPR/Cas9 is able to inherit such a gene, and what kind of hereditary diseases can entail. The science of man is at the stage when the development of biotechnologies and the treatment of hereditary diseases can take completely new forms. The author gives an example of migration of agents, their reasons for displacement, and connects this theory with his own about how the new generation can be distributed in the world, with the edited gene. The object under consideration is an agent with an edited genome, making a decision along with agents that do not have gene changes, on the continuation of the population. The probabilistic model shows the distribution of agents of two types in a certain territory, taking into account their individual requirements for procreation: using genetic engineering methods and without them. Probably, the mutated individuals of the first generation exhibit completely unpredictable mutations at different sites of DNA. This means that all future generations that have been subjected to genetic engineering will be prone to the greatest mutation and incidence of severe illnesses in the patient. The author proposes to consider the probabilistic model of the choice of continuation of the population using genetic modeling and without it. In the subsequent work, it is planned to use agent-based modeling to adapt the agents and cross them with different types of a given population (born with an altered gene and born by the usual method). After this, it will be possible to model subsequent populations with a mixed genome. Such a model of distribution of the modified genome will help not only economists to predict the future society, but also biologists for the further prediction of possible diseases and the speed of distribution of mutated genes. This work was prepared with financial support of Russian scientific fund (grant № 16-18-10296).

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