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Simulation game analysis of scientific and technical projects assessment mechanism with participation of active experts

Keywords:

B.N. Korobets – Ph. D. (Jurid), Associate Professor, Bauman Moscow State Technical University
E-mail: korobetz@mail.ru
V.A. Minaev – Dr. Sc. (Eng.), Professor, Bauman Moscow State Technical University
M.P. Sychev – Dr. Sc. (Eng.), Professor, Bauman Moscow State Technical University
A.V. Schepkin – Employee, V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS (Moscow)
E-mail: av_shch@mail.ru


Description of game experiments with the scientific and technical projects expert assessment model based on different criterion functions of active experts is given. Each batch of the simulation game consists of three stages: the stage of gathering information – each player informs the host of the game his evaluation of the project; the information processing stage – determination of values of the resulting evaluation; the stage of summarizing – players calculate of their target functions values. The game ends when the players' strategies converge on Nash equilibrium. A formal game model of the project expertise mechanism is described. The role of the lead game is performed by the Center, which is responsible for the quality and timeliness of the evaluation of the scientific and technical project. For the expert evaluation of the project, the rating scale is set with the minimum and maximum values. In determining the resulting score, the Center calculates the arithmetic mean of the estimates received from the players. The goal of the expert is to select a strategy of behavior that will minimize its objective function. In experiments players' functions were performed by automata (software implementation of corresponding algorithm of player's behavior). The behavior of the automaton in accordance with the hypothesis of indicator behavior was considered. Gaming experiments with the model allows to obtain and compare results of expert analysis for various objective functions of players: to achieve a resultant estimate close to own; to increase own rating; simultaneous aspiration both for achievement of the resultant estimation, close to own, and to increase of the own rating. It is shown that presence of own expert’s purposes has significant effect on results of expertise. Analysis of results of the simulation game allows the Center to scientifically justify of formation expert’s team for solving complex scientific and technical projects in real life, enabling them to obtain the necessary skills of expert behavior. The article is accompanied by the necessary number of figures, which confirm the coincidence of analytically obtained values of equilibrium strategies with the values obtained during the simulation game. It is convincingly shown that simulation games make it possible to experimentally evaluate the effectiveness of various expert mechanisms and promptly obtain information about the behavior of experts both when the mechanism itself changes and when the players' goals change.

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