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Semi-Markov model of conflict the warring factions of small numbers


Yu.L. Koziratsky – Honored Scientist of RF, Dr. Sc. (Eng.), Professor of Department, MESC «Zhukovsky–Gagarin Air Force Academy» (Voronezh)
M.L. Parinov – Ph. D. (Eng.), Associate Professor, MESC «Zhukovsky–Gagarin Air Force Academy» (Voronezh)
A.T. Albuzov – Post-graduate Student, MESC «Zhukovsky–Gagarin Air Force Academy» (Voronezh)
A.V. Ivantsov – Dr. Sc. (Mil.), Associate Professor, MESC «Zhukovsky–Gagarin Air Force Academy» (Voronezh)

The article proposes an approach to the construction of a model of conflict, small groups, based on the formation of the full group of States unified conflict system, characterized by a unit change in the number of one of the parties involved in the confrontation. In ac-cordance with the presented approach to dynamic modelling of conflict developed a probabilistic computer model for algorithmization of the process defined above, as well as implement receiving of dynamic indicators changes in the number of parties on the basis of simulation methods. The approach used in developing the semi-Markov model of conflict, has enabled us to remove significant re-strictions on the distribution of the execution time of the task to defeat each of the parties to the conflict, which significantly expands the range of its possible applications.

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