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Modeling and research of multi-alternative choice method ELECTRE in a context of expert estimates uncertainty

Keywords:

M.L. Sokolova – Undergraduate, Department «UITES», Vladimir State University named after A.&N. Stoletovs E-mail: sok.masha2011@inbox.ru D.A. Gradusov – Ph. D. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Department «UITES», Vladimir State University named after A.&N. Stoletovs E-mail: breeze76@mail.ru V.G. Chernov – Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Professor, Department «UITES», Vladimir State University named after A.&N. Stoletovs E-mail: vladimir.chernov44@mail.ru


One of the most widespread types of tasks which people have to face in professional and daily practice, is the decision making task. If in daily practice it is possible to do without mathematical models for support of decision making process, then in professional activity application of such models it is impossible. The decision support models based on various modifications of the ELECTRE method are highly interesting among them. Thus, the task of the formalized graphical representation of the ELECTRE method stages, for sim-plification of its understanding is urgent. In the article the formalized graphical representation of stages of the traditional ELECTRE method is described. The modification of a method of the multicriteria alternative choice ELECTRE, which allows to account for uncertainties of expert estimates, was also developed and studied. One of the tasks of the multicriteria alternative choice for which the ELECTRE method can be used is the logistic task of the choice of a transport type. The task of a choice of a transport type for logistic system creation can be presented as a task of a multicriteria alternative choice where we can use as the alternatives: automobile, railway, air, water (river or sea) means of transport. In these conditions the usage of methods in which the choice of the best alternative is based on determining of the relations of preference between alternatives, in particular the ELECTRE method is more preferable. Criteria for the evaluation of a transport type have various physical and logical nature therefore the correctness of integrated convolution of criteria which is often used in problems of the multicriteria alternative choice requires additional proofs. Taking it into account it is advisable to use the fuzzy type of the ELECTRE method combining a possibility of this traditional method and a possibility of the fuzzy sets theory for modeling of expert estimates. Two various ways of the the same task solution were demonstrated in this article. They led to the same results that is in full accordance with methodology of the stability theory according to which the result of data processing is invariant concerning a method of processing data. On the example of the considered task of the transport type choice for logistic system it is proved that accounting of uncertainty in expert estimates allows to make a transport type choice more reasonable. The application of IDEF0 diagrams allows to structure the solution of a task for development of a specified application.
References:

 

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