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USA economical reconstruction operator

Keywords:

K.E. Plokhotnikov – Dr.Sc.(Phys.-Math.), Professor, Moscow State University, Financial Universityunder the Government of the Russian Federation. E-mail: psygma@yandex.ru


This topic originally discussed by the author in article, which was published in English. This article is slightly reworked and expanded. Presented model can be classified as econometric model. The dynamics of 14 U.S. economic indicators for the period from 2000 to 2012 with quarterly periodicity are studied. Defined the concept of “logarithmic index of dynamics”. Conversion performed of input data to a set of logarithmic indexes of dynamics. We study various kinds of statistics of set of logarithmic indices. The operator of the U.S. econo-my is defined in terms of how it manages all 14th indicators affecting on logarithmic indexes. Are determined additive and multiplicative control measures of the U.S. economy operator. Based on the available data set is proved that the U.S. economic operator actually ex-ists. We study the correlations between all the logarithmic index, allowing to identify the management structure of operator of the U.S. economy. In particular, clearly defined management of two sectors: sector of the real economy and sector of the consumption. The fore-cast for 2013 (forecast was completed in February 2013) predicted logarithmic indices dynamics, on which were restored the real eco-nomic indicators. Outcome prediction of the U.S. economy by 2013, in addition to details of the behavior of each of the 14 economic indi-cators was reduced to the conclusion that in 2013 the U.S. economy is nothing extraordinary will happen.
References:

 

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