system of the forecasting
S.P. Hripunov – Dr. Sc. (Eng.), Professor, Head, Senior management of research activity and technological accompaniment leading technology (Moscow)
A.N. Demin – Post-graduate Student, Russian Air Force Military Educational and Scientific Center «Zhukovsky–Gagarin Air Force Academy» (Voronezh). E-mail: DeminAndrey1982@yandex.ru
Efficiency of modern group air fight in many respects depends on quality of the decision made by the pilot-commander (operator), thus one of the key parameters, this quality compliance of predicted behavior of the opponent actual is characterizing.
Main objective of creation of onboard intellectual system of forecasting of behavior of the opponent is obtaining the information decisions containing data on alleged actions of the opponent and possible provisions of his aircraft (A) for forecasting.
Development of onboard intellectual system of forecasting of behavior of the air opponent assumes, first of all, modeling of logic of its reasonings and formation on the basis of it behavior hypotheses in the form of forecasts of development of a tactical situation taking into account receptions peculiar to a warring party and rules of the organization and conducting air fight.
The analysis of opportunities of the known approaches used for forecasting of behavior of the opponent in group air fight, testifies to need of development there is nobody new approach which would provide creation of the intellectual system considering logic of reasonings of the opponent at decision-making on fight and allowing, on the basis of it, to make forecasting of movement of its LA.
For creation of intellectual system of forecasting of behavior of the opponent complex use of methods of artificial intelligence and mathematical modeling is offered.
As a methodical basis of creation of onboard intellectual system of fore-casting of behavior of the opponent it is offered to use methods of the theory of artificial intelligence, in particular, situational modeling, indistinct sets, and also, mathematical methods of modeling of dynamics of flight of LA, probability theory and research of operations.
As the basic principles of creation of intellectual system of forecasting of behavior of the opponent it is possible to assume the following:
1. Imitating modeling of logic of a choice of tactics of actions of the opponent.
2. Reflexive forecasting of behavior of the opponent.
3. Kompleksirovaniye of heuristic and mathematical models of forecasting.
The block diagram of intellectual system of forecasting of behavior of the opponent in group air fight includes the following blocks:
– the block of determination of nature of actions of LA – is intended for determination of nature of actions of the opponent, proceeding from tactical mission of LA.
– the block of allocation of possible tactical receptions – is intended for allocation of possible tactical receptions of LA of the opponent, proceeding from information provided by the previous block, and information on position LA of the opponent in relation to fighters.
– the block of specification and specification of tactical reception of LA – is intended for determination of nature of tactical maneuver of LA of the opponent, proceeding from information on possible tactical receptions of LA of the opponent, range of LA of the opponent to fighters and the maximum range of start-up of rockets.
– the block of establishment of basic data for movement LA modeling – serves for receiving basic data, the potrebnykh for modeling.
– the block of modeling of movement LA of the opponent – is intended for creation of area of estimated position LA of the opponent;
– the block of updating of the forecast – is intended for comparison of the received hypothesis with the actual development of a tactical situation and acceptance of the formulated hypothesis, or its adjustment.
Results of the conducted research on an assessment of efficiency of work of intellectual system of forecasting of behavior of the opponent testifies that use of the developed system allows to increase probability of adoption of the correct decision at 1,12 and 1,35 times in comparison with pilots of the first and second class that gives the chance to recommend use of this system in onboard information system of the plane.
Realization of intellectual system of forecasting of behavior of the opponent in onboard information system is offered in the «Subsystem of Information Processing and Formation of Information Solutions Recommendations» block.
Onboard intellectual systems of forecasting of behavior of the opponent provides:
1. Vstraivayemost in existing structure of onboard system of the modern fighter.
2. Associativity with the regular equipment and program and algorithmic providing.
3. Possibility of use as the exercise machine for training of commanders of division.
4. Increase in probability of the correct forecast at 15−24% in comparison with pilots of various qualification.
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