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Ranging of the climatic extremal territories on the basis of the fuzzy logic theory

Keywords:

V.V. Popov – Ph. D. (Geogr.), Associate Professor, Deputy Head of Theoretical Hydrometeorology Department, Russian Air Force Military Educational and Scientific Center «Zhukovsky–Gagarin Air Force Academy» (Voronezh)
I.I. Ulshin – Ph. D. (Phys.-Mat.), Associate Professor, Head of Theoretical Hydrometeorology Department, Russian Air Force Military Educational and Scientific Center «Zhukovsky–Gagarin Air Force Academy» (Voronezh). E-mail: ulshin@rambler.ru
P.A. Timofeev – Head of Center, Main Hydrometeorological Center of the Ministry of Defense of RF (Moscow)


In the article ways of use of the method of fuzzy logic for the purpose of improvement of quality of use of hydrometeorological and climatic information are studied. Hydrometeorological safety of armies (forces) essential depends on the weather and climatic conditions which account is complicated in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation for a variety of objective reasons. For support of the high level of hydrometeorological safety in article the model of support of acceptance of the weather dependent decisions, based on use of methods of processing of indistinct expert information and intended for implementation in severe weather climatic conditions is offered. Its feature is the accounting of subjective preferences of the person making decisions. Development of recommendations on decision-making when using this model happens in some stages: the local climatic territories and a state of environment are selected; evaluation criteria based on use of functions of accessory are defined; subjective terms for the status assessment of environment are defined and matrixes of linguistic variables are built; the relative importance of each of evaluation criteria is defined; the state of environment on the basis of values of a linguistic variable is estimated; comparing and ranging of the local climatic territories on an extremeness level of weather conditions is carried out. By authors it is shown that for acceptance of the adequate decisions providing the high level of hydrometeorological safety, synthesis of objective and subjective indistinct hydrometeorological information is necessary. In article the way of determination of types of the weather conditions, based on attraction of the methods of the theory of indistinct sets is of great interest. It is shown that implementations of the offered model of decision-making on the basis of the accounting of standard weather conditions provide the most rational use of available hydrometeorological information and promote increase of hydrometeorological safety of armies (forces). The received results can become a basis for the further scientific researches directed on increase of adequacy of made decisions in the conditions of meteorological uncertainty.
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