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A statistical model for relative information losses disribution at the information channel output for estimating the probability of effective jamming by the time of information conflict outcome


V.I. Vladimirov, I.V. Vladimirov, V.M. Shatskikh

The evaluation of possible outcome of a multistage conflict between a jamming facility (JF) and a radio communication link (RCL) having regard to the application of measures (countermeasures) taken by belligerents to reduce (to increase) information losses at the output of an information channel of a target receiver is a key problem both for parties of the conflict and an external observer. For the external observer monitoring the multistage information conflict it is a priori evident that, in the first place, a radio communication link aims to minimize recipient’s relative info losses at the time length of its operative value at the sacrifice of defensive electronic countermeasures; second, a jamming asset aims to maximize relative info losses with due regard for RCL countermeasures taken to reduce its jamming efficiency. It has been shown that in this situation, given the data on belligerents’ resources to control resource parameters (SNR, JSR) at the target receiver output, the modified beta-distribution can be taken as a statistical model for the probability density function of info losses. The impact on the probability of success (failure) in resource parameters control is illustrated by plots. The analysis of the plots show that, first, there is a third participant of the conflict, namely, nature. Account must be taken of the effect of nature’s natural noise on the conflict outcome if a target receiver has increased sensitivity. Second, equilibrium state can occur by the time of conflict outcome when relative info losses γ = 0,5 or near it. Third, with average JSR as the system resource parameter at the target receiver input with an accuracy of 20–30% the external observer can identify a possible state (success, failure, equilibrium) of JF-RCL-nature metasystem existing by the time of the conflict outcome.

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