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Probabilistic Forecast of Failing Typical Engineering System Safety for an Enterprise


A.I.Kostogryzov, P.V. Stepanov, V.M. Popov, G.A. Nistratov, A.A. Nistratov

The practical approach to forecast the indices of failing typical engineering system safety is offered. The integral indices are the mean time of safe system operation and risk to lose complex safety during given time. The criteria and mathematical statements of problems to forecast, analyze and optimize risks are formulated. It can be used in system life cycle to form system requirements, compare different processes, substantiate technical decisions, adjust technological parameters, improve system operation, increase efficiency. The users can prove answers on system engineering questions: «How much safe are these or others scenarios?», «What about the real risks and possible damages?», «What measures are more effective?» etc. On the base of the offered models preventive effective measures may be used in time. The foundations are probability models based on the probability theory, theory of regenerating processes and methods of system analysis and also supporting software tools. Capabilities and interpretation of the results of implementation are illustrated by examples

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